UPDATE
Should a change in the breeding season be considered to help stem the serious decline in foal numbers?
Thanks to the many people who contributed to this conversation a couple of weeks ago
The question created a lot of debate and polarised opinions both for and against and for this reason it is important to follow up with this update in the best interest of everyone involved
Why even consider such a change to the breeding season?
Australian Harness Racing’s business model renders it almost totally dependant upon wagering turnover to generate the revenue it needs to pay the stake money necessary for the industry to remain viable
To generate this revenue requires sufficient numbers of races with field sizes that maximize wagering
As the race numbers and field sizes decline (caused by a lack of horses i.e. product) wagering and the revenues needed to maintain stake money will ultimately decline
Participants can choose to ignore these business model facts and accept the ultimate demise of harness racing as a professional sporting pursuit or alternatively recognise the obvious and participate in a serious discussion as to how the industry as a whole might address the threat it faces if foal numbers (product) decline further
To put this threat into context the following official HRA FACTS are provided
Over the last 37 years the number of foals bred per season has dropped from 13,658 in 1978 – 1979 to 3,777 in 2014 -15 (lowest ever)
This is a decline of 9,881 foals (-73%)
Most importantly it represents a decline of approximately 4,940 females (Without mares the breeding industry can’t function)
In the last 10 years alone the numbers of mares bred has declined by 36% from 8,814 in 2004 – 2005 to 5,609 in 2014 – 15 (- 3,205) which again is the lowest number ever recorded
If this rate of declined continues for the next decade there will be only around 2,500 foals bred across Australia in 2024 – 2025
Claims made by some and endorsed be others that despite breeding less foals Australia is coducting MORE races than ever before are incorrect
The HRA FACTS record 15,967 races in the 2004 – 05 season and 1,493 or nearly 10% less just a decade later in 2014 – 15 (14,474 races)
There was a decline of 1,798 starters in the same period
This is reality and demonstrates that higher prize money and more and more improvements to breeding schemes have failed to reverse the downwards trends in the key factor (product) that contributes to industry viability
Increased opportunities for fillies and mares whilst very welcome have not in isolation been able to stem the decline either
Whilst administrators often get bagged by some high profile Studs and participants over this perceived failure if these people undertook some simple homework they would discover that the major problem is that trainers quit many fillies before they even get to the races because they don’t have the ability to compete even against their own sex
This creates a situation that many opportunities for fillies and mares to race against their own sex are lost because the races programmed to assist them don’t stand up – no fault of the administrators
A major International Breeding and Utilization study conducted by Equine Excellence came to the conclusion that there may well be a genetic reason why overall the female breed in Australasia does not compete to the same degree as the male breed
For a free copy of the report e-mail contact@equineexcellence.biz
Many of those people complaining about the supposed lack of opportunities for female pacers have received this report
I wonder what actual research they have undertaken to try and understand and help resolve what is a becoming a serious problem
Some readers will dismiss these observations (their right to do so) and they need not bother to read further
I invite their criticism of me but request that it is backed up by FACTS not just unverified opinions
For those in agreement with any of the points made and keen to contribute to a professional, mature and open minded debate please read on
So why are the foal numbers in decline and can the industry arrest and reverse the situation to the benefit of the majority of participants who “put in” more than they “take out”?
Simply put the decline is due to the fact that not enough people want to breed Standardbreds any more
The reasons for this are more complicated
Lack of demand for the foals produced
Losses associated with yearlings sold below costs to produce and sell
Less and less people taking an interest in and attending harness racing these days which is the “catalyst” for them to become involved at ownership/breeder level
Many of the sports “rusted on” devotees ageing and reducing their involvement in ownership and breeding
Smaller studs and a lot of country hobby breeders have disappeared as the sport has become too metropolitan centric and without a city “showplace” in the two biggest markets
Many perceive that integrity issues that continue in the sport places them at a unfair disadvantage
It’s easier, quicker and less of a risk to import a proven going horse from NZ rather than breed or buy an untried yearling if you have the money to do so
Affordability has become a critical issue especially for those still working or without substantial business investment/retirement funds
The social enjoyment of the sport has diminished and many owners don’t even attend to watch their horses compete on the new “metropolitan” tracks
Owners (payers) in the main do not feel “special” and by and large are not treated as “special”
The outflows are exceeding the inflows and when that takes places the “payers” leaking bucket eventually empties
Not enough payers = No sport
There are many problems that administrators need to address and the threat to future product availability ranks at the top of this list
How can Harness Racing stem and reverse the sports decline?
Industry participants are totally reliant upon administrators to bring the crowds back to harness racing
If the administrators fail in this task the demand for foals will never reach the levels the sport needs to survive
Apart from improving /replacing the people at the helm participants have little influence on fixing this problem
However they may be able to help to some degree stem the decline and improve the perilous situation that will soon confront the industry – insufficient numbers of horses
All available ideas and options need to be put on the table and thoroughly examined in a professional, mature and fully informed manner
This was the reason that Equine Excellence initiated this debate and thanks to HARNESSBRED readers a promising start has been made
Respondents have already made some very valuable points but they now need to be examined fully
Undoubtedly affordability is the biggest problem for many already in the sport who would dearly love to become more involved
These people are already lovers of harness racing and the sport does not have to go a find them it just needs to help them
“I have a couple of broodmares…..it’s simply down to not being able to afford it …. The last thing on the list is sending mares off to stud”
“For us it was rising costs, lower stake money and stagnant wages … can’t afford to keep going like that when you have a family to feed”
“Take away the hefty fees to put foals on the ground”
We know that costs have become a major impediment for many to continue breeding
There is some early evidence in NSW that collaborative initiatives between the HRNSW, NSWHRC and the industry to reduce costs associated with breeding and registration resulted in an increase in the numbers of mares served in 2014 – 15 (+ 177 mares on 2012 – 13 season)
This confirms that helping those already in the industry can slow the decline but reversing it still remains a major challenge
We know that the return on investment is just not there unless you are in a position to breed at the elite level
We know that a high percentage of participants are now aware that they are unable to compete particularly at the elite level
We know that many owners don’t feel they are “special” nor are they treated accordingly so there is no offset to the money they invest/lose
So why will people breed the horses the industry will need to survive?
They won’t unless the industry is prepared to change and meet the needs and wants of the majority that make up the industry not just the minority that are in the financial position to gain the benefits of breeding and racing at the elite level – The industry needs every owner, breeder and foal it can get as wagering revenue is derived across all levels not just the elite level
One way to try and achieve this is to level the playing field in every aspect from breeding to racing integrity to the recognition of all people who contribute to the sport in one form or another
Start with the threat to foal numbers – can levelling the playing field here assist?
Most people agree that one huge problem is that unless you breed or buy a yearling from one of the top North American stallions your chances of a worthwhile return on investment (money and time) are not that great
In addition a hefty percentage of the stallion fees heads back to North America which does not benefit our industry in the way Australian owned stallions (Home bred or imported) would
Is the Australian Harness Racing Industry more popular and in a stronger position today than it was before the influx of USA shuttle
stallions commenced and the industry became Americanized by focussing on speed (bigger tracks and mostly mobile racing)
If not the question becomes would our industry be better off if we changed our breeding season similar to that of the North American Breeding season in order to focus upon home grown or Australian owned imported stallions and the benefits they could possibly bring
How much will it really matter if the horses don’t race as quite as fast?
Perhaps they might race more often and for longer – who knows?
Many of the big studs and breeders have labelled this suggestion ridiculous
Maybe they are right
But there are other Stud interests and major owners/breeders who have different views
Is anything lost by undertaking a close examination of all the positives and negatives before drawing conclusions?
After all the big studs, big breeders and big owners do have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo
They have a competitive advantage in that they can afford to stand the best stallions or breed and buy the best foals and therefore skim most of the cream off the industry pie
But this situation is one of the core reasons that the industry has been in decline over the last three decades as more and more of the paying participant numbers needed exit the sport and are not replaced
The feedback received in regards to changing the breeding season also included potential concerns mainly related to important horse management/welfare issues
For example
“How can any industry succeed in the face of such ignorance – as if the biology of the mare was irrelevant?”
“I wouldn’t be happy to have a foal born in March in Western Australia … hard enough to get them to survive without adding excessive heat and flies”
Together with questions about breeding mares later in the season these a fair calls but can they be addressed if there was a major benefit to the industry by changing the breeding season?
Are there are benefits that out weigh the disadvantages?
What might a changed racing, breeding and foaling season look like
Harness Racing season runs from Jan 1st – December 31st each year
Breeding season starts Mid January – End May 30th (Prior to winter)
(USA Season – Mid February – End June)
USA Stallion owners would have the option of which countries they wished to stand their elite shuttle stallions in (USA/CAN; NZ or AUS) and when
Majority of foals born Mid December – through February (Few in March)
All foals deemed 1 y o on January 1st each year
A look at comparative average temperatures for the suggested new breeding /foaling seasons
Shepparton Victoria Perth Western Australia Hanover USA
Jan 31 degrees 31 degrees
Feb 31 degrees 32 degrees 7 degrees
Mar 27 degrees 30 degrees 12 degrees
Apr 22 degrees 26 degrees 18 degrees
May 18 degrees 22 degrees 23 degrees
June 28 degrees
The Saudi Arabia thoroughbred racing authorities have kindly
provided average high temperatures for their breeding and foaling
seasons in Riyadh (Home of Thoroughbred Racing)
Jan 21 degrees; Feb 23 degrees; March 27 degrees, April 33 degrees
May 39 degrees; June 42 degrees
Taken at face value this research would suggest that Australia could
accommodate a later breeding and foaling season especially if careful
foal management procedures were in place to militate against extreme
high temperature events
What are the implications for 2 y o and 3 y o racing if the Australian racing and breeding seasons were to change as suggested
All foals actually become 2 y ears of age between November and March (Currently September through January so the same 5 months gap from early foals to late season foals applies)
Low key 2 y o “baby” racing commences mid September (spring) when oldest are actually 2 years 10 months and youngest are 2 years 6 months (giving the youngsters more maturity and preparation time)
There would be NO major classic or feature races conducted for Standardbreds in their 2 y o season
These premier events and all associated stake money are rescheduled to a first premium Stanza four month 3 y o racing schedule which commences on January 1st and concludes in mid April each year
Standard (non feature) 3 y o racing continues from Mid April through to September when the then rising 4 y o’s compete for the major 3 y o classic and futurity events in a second premium Stanza (September through to end December) that would have previously been raced earlier under the “old” racing season schedule season
These premier events would form the nucleus of Australian Harness Racing’s Spring/Summer Carnivals including time honoured events for already 4 y o and older horses together with the attraction of the annual Yearling Sales
In essence Harness Racing would programme ALL of its best races for its best horses at the best times of the year that would create the best conditions to attract the best crowds and hopefully high value fans who would them become owners and breeders
The winter months would basically tick over with a standard racing schedule (for wagering purposes) and no additional money (beyond inflation) invested in stakes or promotion
What about New Zealand?
Ideally Australasia should work as one for the benefit of the industry in both countries
Australia should not presume what is best for our neighbours across the ditch
But it is fair to say that they face similar threats when it comes to foal numbers and mares being bred
A lot of different factors come into play in NZ but the New Zealand Standardbred Breeders Association acknowledge that the loss of hobbyist owners and breeders is central to their decline in foal numbers also
New Zealand’s future may be even direr than Australia
This is because of their significant exports to North America, Australia and more recently China
Exporting is the only way many New Zealand participants make money but the drain this places on their product available for racing will ultimately affect the viability of being able to conduct race meetings
Without opening up discussions it is difficult to predict what the Kiwi’s decide as their best pathway forward for a viable industry
If their breeding season remains unchanged North American Shuttle stallions will make their way there but with a changed Australian breeding season and a likely reduction in Australian mares available it would remain to be seen if all of the shuttle stallions could attract enough bookings to offset the costs involved in transporting their stallions
In closing
This is a complex debate but one that it critical to the future of Harness Racing in Australasia
Please take some time out to discuss this paper further with your harness friends and feedback your views (positive or negative) and any additional ideas you might have direct to the HarnessBred Facebook page so that everyone may consider them
Thank you,
Ray Chaplin
Approved By Dean Baring www.harnessbred.com
Driving The Future Of Harness Racing
