Bad Theories Or just Lies ?

The numbers don’t lie, people can.

As the foaling and breeding season winds down for the 2016/2017 season, a lot of us move our attention to the www.harnessbred.com SA Yearling Sale and the APG Yearling Sales Series where the leading youngsters will be sold this year across 5 sales occurring in Melbourne (x 2), Sydney, Brisbane and Perth.

While some of the views and ideas from online chat site makes for interesting reading, I do question some people on how their theories are formed and as to whether they have actually looked deeply into the real numbers and the likelihood of how they go about finding the next, Smolda, Our Waikiki Beach or Follow The Stars.

One that came across my desk this week from a self-promoted expert quoting “l only buy yearlings if it’s one of the first 4 foals of a dam”.  This was so left field in my mind it gave me the motivation to invest some time pulling it apart, as it’s one theory l can’t buy into, and the truth is, l have the data and the resources  to have a really independent look.

So my starting point was to go Bettors Delight our leading sire (in my view) and look at his top 5 progeny in  NA on earnings

1. Darlins Delight     $3,024,304 she is the 9^th foal of Town Pro, I’m off to a good start
2. Betting Line         $2,238,518  he is the 9^th foal of Heathers Western
3. All Bets Off          $2,198,003  he is the 9^th foal of Armbro Penelope

Now a lot people in AUS/NZ don’t like looking at just NA data, so let’s look at ANZ top 5 for Bettors

1. Beautide                 $2,183,132 is the 6^th   foal of Gorse Bush
2. Adore Me                $1,667,029 is the 10^th foal of Scuse Me
3. Have Faith In Me     $1,324,879 is the 12^th foal of Scuse Me
4. Bit of a Legend        $1,268,547 is the 10^th foal of Soky’s Legend

So that’s an amazing 70% (combine) for top 5 progeny in both hemispheres for foals with 5 or more older siblings!

Let’s look at another leading sire, Mach Three both NA and ANZ

2. Monkey On The Wheel         $1,705,434 is the 7^th   foal of  Legislation
3. Mach It So                          $1,664,244 is the 10^th foal of Beach Dancer
4. Solar Sister                         $1,128,108 is the 5^th   foal of Cabrini Hanover
5. Camaes Fellow                    $1,030,050 is the 6^th   foal of Camae

In ANZ

1. Auckland Reactor         $1,759,374 is the 11^th foal of Atomic Lass

Again at 60% the numbers aren’t supporting this well held view/myth about the first 4 foals, so let’s keep going and have a look at Art Major’s only 2 foals to ever earn over $2m in NA and his top 5 in ANZ

1. JK Endofanera         $2,140,101  is the 8^th foal of Presidential Lady
2. Art Official               $2,085,185  is the 5^th foal of Naughty Shady Lady

In ANZ

2. Sushi Sushi                 $1,103,327 is the 8^th foal of Sabilize
3. Avonnova                   $879,815    is the 5^th foal of Mini Slick
4. Our Major Mark          $716,520     is the 6^th foal of Gucci Franco

Let’s save the last look for Western Terror a stallion I have great faith in and one that gives all yearling buyers a great chance of finding  that $100k plus winner without breaking the bank.

2. Economy Terror        $1,637,239  is the 10^th foal of Mattatonic
3. Shacked Up              $1,466,978  is the  5^th  foal of Sapphire Dawn
4. Yellow Diamond        $1,387,013  is the  9^th foal of Mattatonic

In ANZ

1. Terror To Love       $2,429,978  is the 5^th  foal of Love To Live
2. Earle Dale              $412,673    is the 13^th foal of Cath Hanover

American Ideal has star progeny like Bling It On , winner of $1,235,731 and again he was the 6^th foal of Alldatglittersisgold.  It just doesn’t make sense to me why people would invest their hard earned money in theory’s that just don’t add up. Bottom line is, we have more evidence that horses born from the correct mating of the Sire/Dam is the real factor people should be looking at – not some strange theory about the first 4 foals from a mare that the data can’t support.

Good luck picking the next super star at the sales.

PS just check this list out if your still not convinced

Approved By Dean Baring www.harnessbred.com

Driving The Future Of Harness Racing