By Danielle Helbers
Some time ago, I said I would perform an analysis of siring ability that enables our colonial sires to be included and compared. This article gives the findings for Village Jasper broodmares in Australia, and all their progeny that started on a race track by June 2018. This article focuses exclusively on results of the following:
- Qualities of listed winnings progeny,
- Siring results when the grand dam was listed AND she threw a listed winner herself,
- Siring results when listed winning grand dams, listed winning dams, and grand dams that threw listed winning foals are all excluded, and
- Average earnings of race starting progeny against average earnings of the broodmare pool to that sire. This only includes sires with 5 or more starting progeny.
Before proceeding, I wish to thank HRA, which provided data to me free of charge. HRA was great to deal with and did their best to meet my data requests.
Methodology
Manual entry of data was required before any analyses could commence. To compile the data I downloaded the broodmares sire report for all starters, then recorded manually which of Village Jasper’s daughters were listed winners, and did the same for his grandchildren and the grand dam of the starter. Other data I entered manually included whether Village Jasper’s daughter and her mother (the grand dam) were unraced, unplaced, placed, or a winner. I also recorded the dam’s earnings. Whether the maternal grand dam had thrown any listed winners, winners, etc was also recorded.
Free for all or metropolitan winners were not recorded in the data file. Determining race type, other than listed races, was error prone due to inconsistencies in the database. This was largely a historical artefact arising from differential recording practices between the states, which were problematic until recent times. Whilst I cannot guarantee my data file is free from errors, I have confidence that the analyses can show some ‘signals’.
The analyses will have limitations that should be considered when interpreting results. For example, a sire’s starters may be comparatively young and may have had less opportunity than others to make their mark. Another consideration is that this analysis is specific to Village Jasper’s daughters born in Australia. A sire may lack an affinity to this blood, but may still be an incredible sire, including over the ditch in New Zealand. That said, let’s have a look at the results.
Horses in the data file:
The file includes 397 starters out of 194 of Village Jasper’s daughters of varying quality, and by 111 different sires. Nine broodmares had five or more starting progeny in the file, and a grand total of 51 altogether, which represents 13% of all starters.
The sires with the most starters in the file were: Art Major (33 starters), Grinfromeartoear (31), Modern Art (15), Sportswriter (14), Mach Three (12), Mister Big (10), Live or Die (10), Blissfull Hall (9), Village Jolt (9), and Four Starzzz Shark (9). The progeny of these sires total 157 altogether or 39.5% of all starters in the file.
Listed Winning Progeny out of Village Jasper Broodmares
For this analysis, I selected only the starters that have won listed races. The table below shows 20 listed winners by 14 sires and average winnings. The top 6 average winnings are colour coded in the table.
These 20 listed progeny were out of 18 broodmares. Two broodmares had 2 listed foals each. No dams of these listed foals were listed winners, however, half of the grand dams (9 in total) had thrown a listed winner. Nine listed winners had a grand dam that had thrown winners, and 1 listed winner had a grand dam who had not thrown any winners. No listed progeny had a grand dam who had not thrown any starters.
Mach Three is the only sire to have 3 progeny that had won listed races. Four Starzzz Shark, Sportswriter and Grinfromeartoear all had 2 listed winners each.
Two of the 14 sires that have thrown listed winners are colonial bred, Christian Cullen and So Thats Life. Both have small crops in this file. Christian Cullen has 4 starters, and So That’s Life has 2 starters in the file.
The table below indicates that Village Jasper broodmares who have thrown a listed winner may have an affinity with Direct Scooter (5) or Artsplace (6) sirelines, with 11 of the 19 by these sire lines.
Starters out of Elite Broodmares
This analysis was intended to capture the more elite broodmares in the data file, and the crosses that appear to be working with these mares. Elite broodmares were classified as such if they had any one of the following qualities:
- their grand-dam was a listed winning mare and had thrown a listed winner,
- their dam was a listed winner, or
- their dam had earned over $100,00 on the racetrack. Most of these dams were placed or competitive in group level company but had not won a listed race.
The selection criteria resulted in 53 starters by 26 different sires, and out of 26 broodmares – see the results displayed below. Four of the resulting progeny were listed winners. Sires with listed progeny have ‘**’ in front of their name in the display below. Sires with more than 1 starting progeny out of elite broodmares show the total number in brackets, eg Mach Three had 6 foals using these criteria, with a combined average of $81,657. Mcardle had just 1 starting progeny (winning $242,094) out of an elite broodmare and consequently no number in brackets appears after his name.
The sires that appear to have had the most opportunity with the elite broodmares include Mach Three (6 starting foals), Grinfromeartoear (5 starting foals) and Art Major (7 starting foals). So Thats Life, American Ideal, Extreme Three, Presidential Ball and Live or Die all threw listed winners, however, these sires were not served to an elite mare.
The 5 top sires by average earnings served to the elite broodmare cohort were from non-Meadow Skipper stallions (ie Direct Scooter, Artsplace and Falcon Seelster sire lines). The sire with the highest average winnings out of these broodmares was the very successful colonial sire, Christian Cullen. Four of the 5 sires with the lowest average winnings out of elite broodmares were from Cam Fella sire lines.
Note: 5 progeny were aged 2 years at the time of data extraction. They were sired by Art Major (1 foal), Shadyshark Hanover (1 foal), Sportswriter (2 foals) and Western Terror (1 foal). All 2 year olds remain in the analysis with their earnings being included in the equation of the sire’s average winnings to these mares.
Starters with a race starting, non-winning grand dam, that had not thrown any listed winners
To assess the possible contribution of the sire whilst controlling for mare quality, only grand dams that had raced but were non winners, and which had not thrown any listed progeny were selected for further analysis. Because there was just one 2 year old starter to a sire with only that one starter from this group of mares, only horses aged 3 years and older were included in the analysis for reasons of comparability. The display shows average progeny earnings by sire for this selected group. Sires with more than 1 progeny to this group of mares have the number displayed after their name and inside brackets.
I identified 27 starters aged 3 years or older by 17 sires and out of 16 broodmares using the selected criteria – the results based on average earnings of all progeny to that sire are displayed below.
None of the resulting progeny out of the non-elite daughters of Village Jasper were listed winners. Note also that the more elite sires such as Mach Three, Christian Cullen, Art Major, American Ideal and Bettors Delight do not have any progeny to these mares that started in a race to date, which likely indicates they did not serve these mares.
Four of the top 5 sires put to this group of mares were Most Happy Fella sires, in particular Western Hanover and Cam Fella stallions. Interestingly, three of these top 5 sires possess Big Towner close up through their dam. In the previous section, 4 of the top 5 sires were non-Meadow Skipper line stallions. Perhaps, Village Jasper’s daughters prefer a prominent injection of non-Meadow Skipper blood through the sire’s dam.
The sires throwing the 5 highest earners on the date the data was downloaded are listed below.
- Pacific Fella – $81,777 (born 2011)
- Union Guy – $73,516 (born 2008)
- Dream Away – $62,150 (born 2009)
- Village Jolt –$45,835 (born 2011)
- Always a Virgin – $43,680 (born 2013)
The top 5 sires served to elite Village Jasper broodmares appear to indicate a liking for non-Meadow Skipper lines stallions. However, this analysis has revealed that non-Meadow Skipper blood through the sire’s dam, especially Big Towner bloodlines, may be a key when serving to mares of lower quality.
ADDENDUM: The horse in 5th spot by Always A Virgin is the only horse in the top 5 list above that is still racing and named, Elle Yeah. That horse would actually now top all 5 as her winnings are over $100,000! Further, that particular horse won a Group 1 race in July 2018 and was placed in other listed races in recent weeks. She was able to achieve this from a very ordinary family with no standouts and no winners exceeding $50,000 in the last several generations! Consequently, her win changes the assessment above slightly, showing that all top 3 horses had Big Towner through the sire’s dam. This may signal that Village Jasper’s non-elite daughters have a liking for Big Towner blood through the sire’s dam, and that doing so may actually increase the chances of upgrading resulting progeny.
Sires with 5 or more starters: Average Dam earnings and Average Progeny earnings
In this next analysis, I examined only those sires with 5 or more starters, and compared average earnings of the dam put to that sire with average earnings of her resulting foals. This analysis is another potential indicator of average mare ‘quality’ put to the respective sire, and whether ,on average, the resulting foal appears to have been upgraded by that sire. I have assumed that, if the value for average foal earnings is higher than the value for average dam earnings, than this could indicate an ‘upgrade’ by that sire.
Twenty three sires had 5 or more starters in the data file. Results by sire are displayed below. Sires with a listed winner have a ‘*’ before their name, and the number of progeny put to the sire is given in brackets. The display below shows, for example, that Mach Three has thrown at least 1 listed winner, and the average earnings of the 12 broodmares put to him was about $64,300. Average earnings, at the time of data extraction of Mach Three’s progeny to Village Jasper broodmares was about $77,600. This indicates that Mach Three appears to have ‘upgraded’ the progeny of Village Jasper’s daughters.
The dams with the highest average earnings were put to the following 6 sires: Courage Under Fire, Mark Three, Rock N Roll Heaven, Art Major, Sportswriter, and Mister Big. At the time of compiling the data, only Mach Three appears to have ‘improved’ the average winnings of the resulting foals from this elite group of broodmares.
Though a number of sires have young progeny in this file, both Shadow Play and Mr Feelgood have significantly younger crops out of Village Jasper broodmares compared to the other sires. This must be considered when interpreting the display above. For example, all horses in Shadow Play’s crop were 3 years old except for 1 horse aged 6 years, and Mr Feelgood had 2 starters aged 2 years, another 2 aged 3 years, and another 2 aged 4 years. Consequently, the average earnings of progeny by these sires are likely to change significantly as these starters mature.
Based on the data to date, 13 sires appear to have upgraded the progeny out of Village Jasper’s daughters. The sires with average foal earnings more than $10,000 higher than the average winnings of the dam include: Mach Three, Four Starzzz Shark, Live or Die, American Ideal, Safari, and Julius Caesar.
To date, a number of sires have matched closely but improved slightly the average winnings of the broodmares put to them including: Gotta Go Cullect, Ponder, Mr Feelgood, Elsu, Modern Art, Dawn of a New Day, Artistic Fella and Grinfromeartoear. Mr Feelgood’s crop is significantly younger than other sires, so average winnings can be expected to change in the next few years – more than likely average winnings will increase.
The colonial sires, Safari and Julius Caesar, were served to mares winning below $3,650 on average, but they have significantly upgraded the resulting progeny and their earnings as the display above shows.
Unfortunately, only 1 of the sires (Village Jolt) that made the top 5 in the previous section where non-elite mares were analysed, actually had 5 or more starters in the dataset. Consequently, Union Guy, Always a Virgin, Pacific Fella or Dream Away were excluded from the analysis discussed immediately above. A quick assessment based on the data in the file was undertaken and showed that the average winnings of progeny by all 4 sires was higher than the average of their dams winnings for all 4 sires (see below). However, particular caution with this assessment is recommended, as the results are at higher risk of being particularly skewed by the presence of a standout performer due to such small numbers.
Conclusion:
This article has discussed the performance of sires with progeny out of Village Jasper’s daughters. Eleven of the 19 listed winning progeny were sired by either a Direct Scooter or Artsplace sireline – both of these are non-Meadow Skipper blood lines. A possible pen chance for non-Meadow Skipper blood in the sire was also evident in the progeny out of elite Village Jasper broodmares, with the top 5 sires all descending from Direct Scooter, Falcon Seelster or Abercrombie sire lines.
Starting progeny out of the non-elite daughters of Village Jasper were not by the elite commercial sires, however, 3 of the top 5 possessed Big Towner close up through their dam. In the last month, which was after the date when the data was originally extracted for analysis, it emerged that one of these progeny out of a non-elite mare, has recently become a group 1 winner and placed in other group races. The success of this mare is quite remarkable given her family is very ordinary with no standout nor listed performers in the past several generations. Big Towner through the dam of the sire may increase the change of upgrading resulting progeny out of these mares.
To assess overall affinity and upgrading by the sire I compared average progeny earnings against average mare earnings for sires with a minimum of 5 or more starters in the dataset. Based on the date of extraction in June 2018, the sires that appear to have upgraded resulting progeny by $10,000 or more include, Mach Three, Four Starzzz Shark, Live or Die, American Ideal, Safari and Julius Caesar. These descend from the following 3 sire lines Direct Scooter, No Nukes and Cam Fella.
Approved By Dean Baring www.harnessbred.com
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