Victoria Cup night is one of the biggest meetings in Australasia.
Our Aussie correspondent ADAM HAMILTON takes a look at the key races on the fantastic card at Melton on Saturday night.
RACE 2 – VICTORIA DERBY HEAT 1
Kiwi raider BE JACKS LEGEND (7) faces a challenge from the outside draw (7). He will need to be good to win. Think the $2 is no value. Plenty of handy Aussies in the race, including: SOMEWHERE SECRET (1) first-up; EMAIN MACHA (5), SA Derby winner OUR JIMMIE (6), WA raider IM ROCKARIA (8) and the improving WRAPPERS DELIGHT (10).
Suggested bet: Something each-way WRAPPERS DELIGHT (10) at big odds.
RACE 4 – VICTORIA DERBY HEAT 2
If Mark Purdon’s VINCENT (7) is odds-on to win the final, then he should be too good even from the wide draw. No stars amongst his rivals. BLUE MOON RISING (2) isn’t at his top, but begins well and has gate two. ROCKNROLL ICON (3) is talented, but first-up and lacking experience. YOU GOTTA HAVE FAITH (8) was OK winning first run for Nicole Molander in much weaker race.
Suggested bet: Trifecta Vincent to win with 2 and 3 for second then 1,2,3,4,8 for third.
RACE 5 – VICTORIA DERBY HEAT 3
The most of depth of the Derby heats, but lacking star power. Plenty of chances so cannot take skinny odds Breeders Crown 2YO winner OUR LITTLE GENERAL (5) with lack of recent racing. Can win, but too short. Going with JILLIBY KUNG FUN (2). Loved his two wins back and drawn well. MOTU METEOR (1) is big threat from the pole. ASTRIDE (4) and BEACH SURGE (6) next best.
Suggested bet: Have something on JILLIBY KUNG FU (2) and saver on MOTU METEOR (1) to upset the favourite.
RACE 6 – DULLARD CUP TROT
Love ON THUNDER ROAD (2), but worried about the draw is emergency comes out and he moves to the pole. Not super quick out and can get rocky if put under early pressure. No value as favourite. Like WA raider CARDIGAN BOKO (9) each-way value. His times say he’s flying albeit against rubbish opposition. SUNNY RUBY (4) is drawn to run big race. KEYSTONE DEL (10) is the champ but under huge form and fitness cloud. QUITE A MOMENT (11) and GREAT THINGS HAPPEN (13) have claims.
Suggested bet: CARDIGAN BOKO (9) each-way for value.
RACE 7 – PURE STEEL
Pretty obvious HAVE FAITH IN ME (11) only needs to do everything right to thrash this bunch. Monster run after losing 80m with gallop at the start last week. Longer trip suits. Way, way too good. BERISARI (10) is a lovely mare. MAXIMAN (3) is capable at best. Drawn well and good trial with Guaranteed at Melton on Monday. MILLY PEREZ (9) next pick.
Suggested bet: If you don’t mind skinny odds, the $1.50 or better HAVE FAITH IN ME (11) is actually value,
RACE 8 – VICTORIA CUP
At first glance the barrier draw looked to present the race to LAZARUS (6). But, dig a bit deeper, and the first 150m will be crucial to his chances. HECTORJAYJAY (9) will be desperate to follow through behind quick beginner MAJOR CROCKER (2) to try and settle in front of LAZARUS. That could well decide the race. To me, whichever settled in front of the other will find the front and win. BLING IT ON (8) clear third best horse, but inside back row no help (unless stablemate Mach Doro leads from the one and holds-up).
Suggested bet: I’d rather than $4.50 or so HECTORJAYJAY and hope than take $1.45 or so LAZARUS.
SUMMARY
BEST BET: All-up – R4 n7 Vincent into R7 n11 Have Faith In Me ($1.90 all-up)
BEST VALUE: Jilliby Kung Fu (R5, n2) at $4.50 or better
BEST ROUGHIE: Cardigan Boko (R6, n9) currently $12 available
Approved By Dean Baring www.harnessbred.com
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