Mark Jones hasn’t given up on beating Stent with Master Lavros in today’s $250,000 Dominion at Addington but admits he might not feel quite so confident soon after the start.
New Zealand’s richest trotting race is dominated by the two big guns, who between them have won most major trots in the country in the last two seasons.
Master Lavros won the rare Dominon-Rowe Cup double two seasons ago before slight arthritis and an improved Stent last season saw the turn the tables most times they met.
So Stent goes into today a deserved favourite, even though a hard 3200m is not his ideal distance, because he thrashed Master Lavros over a 2400m standing start at Kaikoura last week.
Jones admits that dented his confidence but he soon bounced back.
“Two years ago we went to Kaikoura and got beaten and then won the Dominion a week later.
“Back then I realised after Kaikoura he needed to be fitter so I worked him a lot harder. I have done the same this week so I have either fixed him or flattened him.”
Even an improved Master Lavros might struggle to beat Stent on their results over the last year, Jones says he has a plan to give him his best opportunity.
“It is pretty simple, I have to get in front of him early and then trot 4:2 or 4:3 and make Stent work.
“If we do that I think we can still win. But he is drawn inside us and if he steps as well as us then he has the tactical advantage. If he gets around first and trails us then maybe he will be too good.”
While the best version of Master Lavros could probably exploit any stamina limitations in Stent, those concerns about the favourite are lessening.
He won the Rowe Cup last May and looks stronger again this season, suggesting he is the complete all-round trotter.
The race is his to lose, but being a 3200m standing start, punters would want $2.50 to be getting real value.
It is hard to see the winner coming outside the big two, with Sheemon not at his best in recent starts and Tuesday’s free-for-all winner Monbet not backing up.
The best bolter is Habibti, the only trotter in today’s race good enough to have beaten Master Lavros and Stent at their best and she was a solid third on Tuesday.
She should improve with that outing and will appreciate the 3200m but from the unruly she faces giving the big boys a daunting start.
Today’s other group one is the Free-For-All for the pacers backing up from the New Zealand Cup and even though he was the run of the race on Tuesday, it is hard to see how Smolda is be the $2.80 favourite.
He has the outside of the front line barrier draw and might have to go back and look for a cart into the race, which is an awfully hard way to win a major sprint.
Smolda was so big and brave after his early gallop on Tuesday that he can probably lay claim to being the best horse in the race but he looks too short.
The key to the race could be the tactics employed on Sky Major, who looks better suited to the 1950m distance and the ace draw today.
If driver Zac Butcher stays in front it makes life harder for the likes of Arden Rooney and Smolda and probably aids Messini, who is drawn to trail him through from the second line.
Arden Rooney is certain to press forward early and actually showed decent gate speed at Melton four starts ago so might surprise a few with how quickly he gets handy, especially with a scratching inside him.
He he is able to wrest the lead he can complete the big double but he is not as well suited to today’s distance and conditions as some of his favoured rivals.
So the best bet could be Messini each way and Sky Major to win, banking on the potential lead-trail scenario which would still leave you with a good chance if they were crossed at the start and were trailing and three deep respectively.
Approved By Dean Baring www.harnessbred.com
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