By Michael Guerin
Tony Herlihy can dominate the two biggest pacing races at Alexandra Park tonight but might have to be a bit more patient to win the major trot.
Herlihy is in superb form and New Zealand’s most successful ever reinsman has three huge chances in the main races at tonight’s meeting as the northern stars set their sights on the South Island riches over the month ahead.
He has the fittest and most in-form pacer in Ohoka Punter for tonight’s $20,000 Holmes D G, the last northern lead-up to the New Zealand Cup as well as the perfect draw with Walkinshaw in the $22,000 Sires’ Stakes heat.
But while he may be able to make his own luck in those races, stable trotting star One Over Da Moon won’t have that luxury off a 50m handicap in tonight’s big trot.
A blazing workout win at Pukekohe on Saturday suggested One Over Da Moon is very forward for his first outing July 30, the latest of a five-race winning streak.
Herlihy knows few open class horses win fresh-up off 50m handicaps but wouldn’t be surprised if his five-year-old was to be an exception to that rule.
“It won’t be easy and a lot might depend on how the race is run but he could do it,” he suggests.
“He feels very forward and is trotting well. He seems to matured out of some of the problems he had in the past and the small field this Friday should help.
“So while you would usually say 50m was too tough for a horse in this grade fresh, he can still be hard to beat.”
Ohoka Punter is off a 20m handicap in the Holmes D G but shares that mark with Sky Major and Besotted and should still have an edge in race fitness over the former.
If he can begin quicker than his 20m backmarker buddies then Ohoka Punter could secure a field position advantage and be the master of his own destiny.
“He definitely hasn’t gone backwards since he won last start but in saying that I am sure a couple of the others have improved.
“But if he can get handy enough to the leaders I won’t be scared to drive him confidently.”
The 2700m of the Holmes D G should see the field settle in single file so Herlihy’s confidence could be crucial as few in the field would be good enough — or brave enough — to resist any bid for the lead by the favourite.
But that is providing he steps better than Sky Major and Besotted. Put them in front of him starting the last mile and the dynamic of the the race changes.
On fitness and form Ohoka Punter deserves favouritism but the race is both tricky and exciting, with serious New Zealand Cup market repercussions as the open class season has spluttered along so far.
While Herlihy doesn’t hold all the cards with his open class horses, he does with Walkinshaw in the Sires’ Stakes heat which should be a beauty tonight.
There is very little between the key players in tonight’s race, with whoever gets the best run usually winning.
Shandale might be flat out the most talented at this stage but was dreadful by his standards at Cambridge last start, showing how hard it can be coming wide in this grade because three-year-olds pace such quick times.
So the ace draw is a huge help for Walkinshaw, with Herlihy believing he has the gate speed to control his own destiny.
“I think he can lead and be hard to catch because he is improving all the time,” he offers.
“And I’d want to see him in the first two here to head to the final at Addington so I will be using the draw.”
If he can control the race Walkinshaw has a great hope but any early pressure would bring Kimani, Shandale and even Motown into play.
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