By Michael Guerin
New Zealand’s pacing great who has been punter’s best friend over the last year should be treated more like an enemy at Addington tonight.
Because while Christen Me should and probably will win the $25,000 Avon City Ford Cup, he doesn’t look a totally convincing betting proposition.
But equally, it is hard to bet against the Horse of the Year and winner of over $2million in a field with only two open class rivals.
That is the conundrum facing punters after Christen Me’s still barely comprehensible defeat at Oamaru 12 days ago, when he was clearly outpointed by stablemate Mighty Flying Mac.
While trainer Cran Dalgety came up with the excuse of his superstar pacer being three wide the last lap on a blustery day, that was merely lip service which he has since dispelled by admitting Christen Me’s fitness had got away on him a bit — hence tonight’s race being aided to his programme.
The reality is Christen Me should have spanked his rivals at Oamaru so clearly is behind the eight ball fitness wise at this early stage of the season.
Yet with a massive campaign in front of him, Dalgety is smart enough to not panic and pump the work into the seven-year-old. So after a quiet week to recover last week, how much fitter can he really be tonight?
Add to that his second line draw in a capacity field and Christen Me has to be at least mildly vulnerable.
But when you are the defending Miracle Mile, Victoria, Auckland and Easter Cup winner, the bookies and fellow punters don’t let you go, so the $2 odds which would represent appropriate value tonight probably won’t turn up.
With a safe beginning and a cart into the race Christen Me will almost certainly still win, especially without a key rival you could back with any confidence to jump on the speed and make life hard for him.
But if genuine group one horses like Tiger Tara, who has been trialling well or Choise Achiever, who was a brave third fresh up, happened to get a good run on the markers they could easily pace 3:14 for tonight’s 2600m standing start and that would test a below peak Christen Me.
Telling punters not to bet isn’t really what you want to hear so if can’t help yourself the odds you want should be around this level — Christen Me $2, Tiger Tara $6 and Choise Achiever $10-12.
If you get any of those fixed odds it might be work taking the gamble on what looks a danger race. Also tricky but without the fitness fears is tonight’s Sires’ Stakes heat at Cambridge, which could hardly be more loaded with form.
All six starters have been racing well so the winner could well come down to who gets the best run, which in mile races at Cambridge usually means leading.
Art Form has such natural gate speed he looks the one to beat but Shandale came from behind him under similar circumstances to beat most of these at Alexandra Park last Friday so can do it again.
Shandale might be the best pacer in the race, although most of these look Derby prospects, but if Art Form leads there probably aren’t many positions in the field Shandale can beat him from, the one-one being the most likely.
Add in stunning last-start winner in far weaker company Walkinshaw, the talented Motown and even Kimani, who is way better than he showed last Friday, and the race looks the highlight of the night at either meeting.
Approved By Dean Baring www.harnessbred.com
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