18 January 2018 | Blake Redden
The connotations are many, the implications are huge. Good Form analyst Blake Redden deep dives into Saturday night’s PETstock Ballarat Pacing Cup, runner-by-runner, with an updated version post Vincent’s scratching.
1: Heaven Rocks – Arguably the most talented horse in the field. A lovable rogue who could make a meal of it at the start and need plenty of luck or alternatively if he does things right he may lead into the first bend and never be caught. He raced straight past Vincent in the Auckland Cup before becoming his own worst enemy and handing the race back on a platter. If he is crossed early by Major Secret then look for him to get off the pegs and work to the breeze mid-race to keep the pressure on.
2: Shadow Sax – One of the rising starts of the field. Niggling issues kept him away from the track for much of his four-year-old season but he continues to step up to every challenge at five and was an impressive last start winner of the South Australian Cup. He’s a local trained by the state’s leading trainer Emma Stewart. Tactics will be most important. If he can find the front then he will become the horse to beat in many peoples eyes.
3: Bernie Winkle – A sit sprinter who would lap up a strong tempo throughout. He can’t win the race but with a touch of luck he may run into fourth or fifth.
4: Major Secret – A noted quick beginner that may try to fire off the gate and lead early. He was run down by an inferior horse in the Cobram Cup and he’d have to reach a new peak to knock off some of his rivals here. Another local who is a stablemate to Shadow Sax.
5: The Faithful – Was quickly racing through his grades before tackling the Bendigo Cup last time where he was outclassed. This looks even harder.
6: Vincent – SCRATCHED
7: Mister Wickham – Appears the type of horse who improves as the level of racing. He was terrific when running second in the Bendigo Cup but he’d need plenty to go right to be in the frame here.
8: Lennytheshark – Once the king of Australasian harness racing, he’s seceded that title in recent times to the mighty Lazarus. He has trialled well enough leading into this and there’s some chance his efforts in the Inter Dominion in Perth were better than they look on paper but given the second row draw he’d need to be at his best to prove all the doubters wrong again.
9: It Is Billy – Another local, trained by Mick Barby and driven by Anne-Maree Conroy. He’s often threatened at this level without winning a really big race. It’s hard to see him doing any damage given it’s such a strong renewal of the Pacing Cup.
Race Overview:
With the shock scratching of Vincent the race becomes a true test of tactics. Heaven Rocks hasn’t been made to run the gate on too many occasions but he hasn’t looked hopeless when he has done so. If he does score up with them then Shadow Sax and/or Major Secret will need to be flying into the first bend to cross him. If Major Secret is first across to the pegs then expect him to hand-up to Shadow Sax with Heaven Rocks off the pegs to do the work mid-race. Lennytheshark may end up in a range of different positions in transit depending on what eventuates after the start but as the only one off the second row, Puppet will be able to assess his options early. It’s hard to see him giving the two market leaders a start and a beating but you can never count out a champion.
Approved By Dean Baring www.harnessbred.com
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