Some time ago, I said I would perform an analysis of siring affinity that enables our colonial sires to be included and compared. This article gives the findings for Perfect Art broodmares in Australia, and all their progeny that started on a race track by the end of July 2018. This article focuses exclusively on results of the following:
Qualities of listed winnings progeny,
- Siring results when the grand dam was listed AND she threw a listed winner herself,
- Siring results out of race starting, non-winning grand-dams that have not thrown any listed winners, and
- Average earnings of race starting progeny against average earnings of the broodmare pool to that sire. This only includes sires with 5 or more starting progeny.
Before proceeding, I wish to thank HRA, which provided data to me free of charge. HRA was great to deal with and did their best to assist me with my data requests.
Methodology
Manual entry of data was required before any analyses could commence. To compile the data I downloaded the broodmares sire report for all starters, then recorded manually Perfect Art’s listed winning daughters, and did the same for his grandchildren and the grand dam of the starter. Other data I entered manually included whether Perfect Art’s daughter and her mother (the grand dam) were unraced, unplaced, placed, listed or a winner. I also recorded the dam’s earnings, and whether the maternal grand dam had thrown any listed winners, winners, etc.
Free for all or metropolitan winners were not recorded in the data file. Determining race type, other than listed races, was error prone due to inconsistencies in the database. This was largely a historical artefact arising from differential recording practices between the states, which were problematic until recent times. Whilst I cannot guarantee my data file is free from errors, I have confidence that the analyses can show some ‘signals’.
The analyses will have limitations that must be considered when interpreting results. For example, a sire’s starters may be comparatively young and may have had less opportunity than others to make their mark. Another consideration is that this analysis is specific to Perfect Art’s daughters with foals born in Australia. A sire may lack an affinity to this blood, but may still be a good sire. That said, let’s have a look at the results and the signals these provide to breeders.
Horses in the data file:
The file includes 433 starters out of 194 of Perfect Art’s daughters of varying quality, and by 132 different sires. Twenty-three broodmares had five or more starting progeny in the file, and a grand total of 136 altogether, which represents 31.4% of all starters.
The sires with the most starters in the file were: Bettors Delight (18 starters), Village Jasper (18), Northern Luck (14), Armbro Operative (13), Blissfull Hall (13), Mr Feelgood (11), Rollon Bigred (11), Courage Under Fire (10), and Mach Three (10). The progeny of these sires total 118 altogether or 27.3% of all starters in the file.
Listed Winning Progeny out of Perfect Art Broodmares
For this analysis, I selected only the starters that have won listed races. The table below shows 44 listed winners by 32 sires and average winnings. The table is sorted so that sires with progeny that have the highest average winnings appear at the top.
These 44 listed progeny were out of 33 broodmares. Three broodmares had 3 listed foals each and another 5 dams had 2 listed progeny each. The remaining 25 daughters of Perfect Art had 1 listed winner each. Five broodmares of these listed foals were listed winning race mares themselves, 17 were winners, 4 were unraced, and the remaining 7 were non-winning race mares. Fourteen of the grand-dams of these 44 listed winners had thrown a listed winner, and 18 had thrown winners. The grand-dam of Lombo Kotakinabalu (by Blissfull Hall) had only thrown unplaced horses! No listed progeny had a grand dam who had not thrown any starters.
Both Mach Three and Rock N Roll Heaven have sired 4 listed winning progeny each, and Mr Feelgood has sired 3. Bettors Delight, Blissfull Hall, Christian Cullen and Village Jasper sired 2 listed winners each. Five of the 32 sires that have thrown listed winners are colonial bred: Christian Cullen, Courage Under Fire, Elsu, Rollon Big Red and Safe and Sound.
The table below indicates that Perfect Art broodmares who have thrown a listed winner may have a particular affinity with Cam Fella with 4 of the top 6 being from that sire-line. A number of sires have progeny that are still winning plenty of races on the track, and so the average earnings may change.
Break down by sire line is as follows:
- 10 Cam Fella sires have 12 listed progeny
- 12 No Nukes sires have 16 listed progeny
- 5 Direct Scooter line stallions have 9 listed progeny
- 5 stallions from other sire-lines have 7 listed progeny
Starters out of Elite Broodmares
This next analysis was intended to capture the more elite broodmares in the data file, and the crosses that appear to be working with these mares. Elite broodmares were classified as such if they had any one of the following qualities:
- their grand-dam was a listed winning mare
- the grand-dam had thrown a listed winner, and/or
- their dam was a listed winner.
The selection criteria resulted in 164 starters by 72 different sires, and out of 47 broodmares. Twenty-six out of these 164 starters were listed winners and by 19 different sires.
Only 29 sires with progeny that have the highest average winnings to date out of elite broodmares were selected and displayed below. The total number of starters to date (ie end July 2018) are plotted against the primary y-axis on the left hand side. Listed starters are shaded red in the column graph. The average winnings of all starters by that sire that were put to the elite broodmares are plotted against the secondary y-axis on the right hand side of the display, and sorted from highest to lowest. For example, Million to One has 2 starters out of elite broodmares, and one of these was a listed winner. The average dollars of these starters by Million to One was close to $280,000.
The sires that appear to have had the most opportunity with the elite broodmares include Bettors Delight (10 starters, 2 listed), Mach Three (8 starters, 4 listed), Courage Under Fire (7 starters, 1 listed), Mr Feelgood (6 starters, 2 listed) and Armbro Operative (6 starters, 1 listed).
Sires with the highest number of listed progeny out of the elite mares were Mach Three (4 listed), Rock N Roll Heaven (3 listed), Mr Feelgood (2 listed) and Bettors Delight (2 listed). The common link for all these sires is that they all have Abercrombie in their pedigree through their dam’s sire, except in the case of Mr Feelgood where Abercrombie is found through his sire and also through his grand-dam.
The sires served to the elite broodmare with his starters earning an average over $100,000 were Million To One, Presidential Ball, Four Starzzz Shark, Northern Lights, Riverboat King, Rock N Roll Heaven, Parsons Den, Mach Three, Blissfull Hall, Roll with Joe and Mr Feelgood. These sires represent a variety of sire lines, however, 5 descend from Cam Fella. Five of these 11 sires possess Abercrombie through their dam-sire.
When I looked more deeply at the 19 sires with listed progeny out of the elite mares, I found that 8 had Abercrombie through their dam-sire and a further 2 possessed Abercrombie through their sire. Seven sires out of the 19 descended from Cam Fella, however, none of the 19 sires possessed Cam Fella through their dam-sire. Based on this analysis, it seems that the elite daughters of Perfect Art may favour Abercrombie blood prominently through the sire’s pedigree.
Million To One sired the most successful horse out of a daughter of Perfect Art, Lombo Navigator ($554,522). His son, Lombo Mandingo, also sired Maddy White who has won over $110,824 and was placed at group level. Trump Casino has also thrown some nice race-way types out the elite Perfect Art broodmares that ran faster than 1:54. Though crops are small, stallions descending from Falcon Seelster demonstrated some good success with the elite broodmares. Interestingly, Perfect Art’s full brother, Art Major, threw Art Official, who was one of his most successful sons on the racetrack and out of a mare by Falcon Seelster. The cross with Falcon Seelster bloodlines has proven that it can produce absolutely outstanding results, and this has also been replicated by Perfect Art’s full brother, indicating that there is something working in this cross.
Several colonial sires have been provided opportunities with these mares. Courage Under Fire has thrown a listed winning starter from one of these mares that has won $287,607 to date, and Lombo Mandingo has sired a nice mare winning over $100,000, that was placed at group level.
Starters with a race starting, non-winning grand-dam, that has not thrown listed winners
To assess the possible contribution of the sire whilst controlling for mare quality, only grand dams that had raced but were non winners, and which had not thrown any listed progeny were selected for further analysis. All horses in the file were aged 4 years and older, except for 1 starter by Mr Feelgood aged 3. The display shows average progeny earnings by sire for this selected group. Sires with more than 1 progeny to this group of mares have the number displayed after their name and inside brackets.
I identified 59 starters aged 3 years or older by 45 sires and out of 23 broodmares– the results based on average earnings of all progeny to that sire above $1000 are displayed below. For example, Blissfull Hall has 2 starters out of this group of mares. The stars before his name also mean that he has thrown a listed winner.
Three progeny out of the non-elite daughters of Perfect Art were listed winners. Listed winners were sired by Blissfull Hall, John Street North and Rob Roy Mattgregor. Two of these are Cam Fella sires, however, all three sires have Abercrombie in their pedigree through either their dam (Blissfull Hall, John Street North) or grand-dam (Rob Roy Mattgregor).
Four of the top 5 sires by average earnings all possessed Abercrombie through their dam’s sire. Pacific Fella possesses no Abercrombie in his pedigree, however, this particular son, Soho Aintree, possesses a duplication of Abercrombie blood because his maternal grand-dam is by Golden Greek (by Abercrombie).
The top 6 horses have all earned over $100,000 to date and are listed below. Abercrombie is the sire’s dam-sire for 5 of these top 6 horses.
- Lombo Kotakinabalu by Blissfull Hall – $185,210 (to date) and listed winner
- Madame Lily by John Street North – $140,824 and listed winner
- Raza Sharp Lombo by Mach Three – $131,596
- Soho Aintree by Pacific Fella – $108,186
- Miss Ponder by Ponder – $105,130
- Jus Livinthedream by Village Jasper – $103,796 (to date)
In the case of Perfect Art’s non-elite daughters, crossing with a sire that possesses Abercrombie as the dam sire appears to increase the likelihood of a horse with ability on the race track. This combination results in a horse with a 3 x 4 cross to Abercrombie.
Sires with Five or more starters: Average Dam and Progeny earnings
In this next analysis, I examined only those sires with 5 or more starters, and compared average earnings of the dam put to that sire with average earnings of the resulting foals. This analysis is another potential indicator of ‘quality’ put to the respective sire, and whether, on average, the resulting foal appears to have been upgraded by that sire. I have assumed that, if the value for average progeny earnings is higher than the value for average dam earnings, than this could indicate an ‘upgrade’ by that sire.
Thirty sires had 5 or more starters in the data file. Results by sire are displayed below. Sires with a listed winner have a ‘*’ before their name, and the number of progeny put to the sire is found inside brackets. Furthermore, sires with ‘##’ after their name have a young crop compared to the others in the file.
Five of Mr Feelgood’s 11 starters, 2 of Always A Virgin’s 5 starters, 2 of Western Terror’s 7 starters and 2 of Rock N Roll Heaven’s 7 starters are aged 3 years and under. This must be taken into consideration when considering the graph below. The average earnings of progeny by these sires may change significantly as these starters mature.
The display below shows, for example, that Rock N Roll Heaven has thrown at least 1 listed winner, and the average earnings of the 7 broodmares put to him was about $43,835. Average earnings of Rock N Roll Heaven’s progeny out of Perfect Art broodmares was $129,889. This indicates that Rock N Roll Heaven appears to upgrade the progeny out of Perfect Art’s daughters.
The display shows that at least 22 of the 30 sires appear to, on average, upgrade the resulting progeny. Mr Feelgood may also soon make this list once his starters mature. Whether it is 22 or 23 sires that have upgraded the progeny – this is quite an outstanding result, highlighting the value of Perfect Art’s daughters as broodmares.
The dams with the highest average earnings were put to the following 6 sires: Mr Feelgood, Jeremes Jet, Presidential Ball, Western Terror, Somebeachsomewhere and American Ideal. At the time of compiling the data, Presidential Ball was the only sire that has ‘improved’ the average winnings of the resulting foals from this group of comparatively elite broodmares. However, almost half of Mr Feelgood’s progeny are aged 3 years and under, making assessment of his contribution when served to daughters of Perfect Art somewhat flawed. Given his starters have average earnings to date that are almost level with the average winnings of the mares put to him, AND also because he has sired 3 listed winners, I anticipate that the crop will surpass the average winnings of the mares put to him in the future.
The sires with average foal earnings over $30,000 above the average earnings of the mares put to him include: Mach Three, Four Starzzz Shark, Rock N Roll Heaven, Blissfull Hall, Pacific Fella, Village Jasper, Always A Virgin and Million to One. Both Four Starzzz Shark and Million to One have one outstanding performer each that has earned over $500,000. Jilliby Kung Fu (by Four Starzzz Shark) may soon overtake Lombo Navigator (by Million To One) with respect to earnings made on the track. Neither sire has another son or daughter in the file that has won more than $40,000, so the calculated average winnings are particularly skewed by that standout performer.
Some sires were served to mares with average winnings below $10,000, yet the resulting progeny appear to have been significantly upgraded. Furthermore, average winnings to several of these sires were not significantly skewed by a standout performer. These sires include Always a Virgin, Pacific Fella and Village Jasper.
The top 3 sires based on average earnings of his progeny are Rock N Roll Heaven ($129,889), Mach Three ($113,913) and Blissfull Hall ($89,765). These 3 sires all possess Abercrombie prominently through the sire’s dam, which is consistent with findings in earlier analyses.
No obvious pattern is evident with respect to any particular sire line. However, Rock N Roll Heaven over the daughters of Perfect Art appears to be a particularly successful cross. I speculate that the cross to Mr Feelgood may also be a successful cross, but time will tell whether this proves to be so as this group of horses are still rather young. Both Mr Feelgood and Rock N Roll Heaven possess Artsplace and duplications of Abercrombie in their pedigree.
Conclusion:
This article has discussed the qualities of sires with progeny out of Perfect Art’s daughters. The report has identified that Perfect Art’s daughters are excellent broodmares, crossing very well with many different sires.
Four of the top 6 listed winners were by Cam Fella sires, however, a particular affinity for this sire line was not evident in other analyses. I made findings that sires possessing Abercrombie through either their dam and/or duplications of Abercrombie in their pedigree seem to have the most likelihood of success with daughters of Perfect Art. Despite this finding, the 2 most successful horses in the file based on earnings to date do not possess any Abercrombie whatsoever!
Mach Three and Blissfull Hall have progeny out of both the elite and non-elite mares. Progeny out of each type of mare averages over $100,000 in race winnings. This indicates that these 2 sires may be a particularly good cross over Perfect Art’s daughters, regardless of the overall success of her family. These 2 sires consistently rated well in all analyses undertaken.
In the case of Perfect Art’s non-elite daughters, sires possessing Abercrombie through the dam’s sire appears to increase the likelihood of a horse with ability on the race track. Elite daughters of Perfect Art crossed well with a variety of sires, however, the cross with Rock N Roll Heaven appears to have a particularly high strike rate. Abercrombie appears in Rock N Roll Heaven’s pedigree 3 times!
Perfect Art’s elite daughters can produce outstanding performers when crossed with sires possessing Falcon Seelster as seen by the success of Lombo Navigator. The successful cross with Falcon Seelster has also been replicated by Perfect Art’s full brother, Art Major.
Given that Perfect Art is a full brother to Art Major, this analysis may assist breeders with selecting suitable sires for his daughters. Note, however, this analysis included mature sires with starters out of Perfect Art broodmares. Young sires such as Pet Rock, who is bred very similarly to Rock N Roll Heaven and also has Abercrombie appearing 3 times in his pedigree, or A Rocknroll Dance may be just as successful or moreso with daughters of Perfect Art, but I have no way of demonstrating with this data set.
Approved By Dean Baring www.harnessbred.com
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