Some time ago, I said I would perform an analysis of siring affinity that enables our colonial sires to be included and compared. This article gives the findings for Armbro Operative broodmares in Australia, and all their progeny that started on a race track by early August 2018. This article focuses exclusively on results of the following:
- Qualities of listed winnings progeny,
- Siring results when the grand dam was listed OR she threw a listed winner herself,
- Siring results out of race starting, non-winning grand-dams that have not thrown any listed winners, or unraced grand-dams that have thrown only unraced, unplaced or placed horses and
- Average earnings of race starting progeny against average earnings of the broodmare pool to that sire. This only includes sires with 5 or more starting progeny aged 4 years and older.
Before proceeding, I wish to thank HRA, which provided data to me free of charge. HRA was great to deal with and did their best to assist me with my data requests.
Methodology
Manual entry of data was required before any analyses could commence. To compile the data I downloaded the broodmares sire report for all starters, then recorded manually Armbro Operative’s listed winning daughters, and did the same for his grandchildren and the grand dam of the starter. Other data I entered manually included whether Armbro Operative’s daughter and her mother (the grand dam) were unraced, unplaced, placed, listed or a winner. I also recorded the dam’s earnings, and whether the maternal grand dam had thrown any listed winners, winners, etc.
Free for all or metropolitan winners were not recorded in the data file. Determining race type, other than listed races, was error prone due to inconsistencies in the database. This was largely a historical artefact arising from differential recording practices between the states, which were problematic until recent times. Whilst I cannot guarantee my data file is free from errors, I have confidence that the analyses can reveal some ‘signals’.
The analyses will have limitations that must be considered when interpreting results. For example, a sire’s starters may be comparatively young and may have had less opportunity than others to make their mark. Another consideration is that this analysis is specific to Armbro Operative’s daughters with foals born in Australia. A sire may lack an affinity to this blood, but may still be a good sire. That said, let’s have a look at the results and the signals these provide to breeders.
Horses in the data file:
The file includes 845 starters out of 368 of Armbro Operative’s daughters of varying quality, and by 160 different sires. Thirty-three broodmares had five or more starting progeny in the file, and a grand total of 208 altogether, which represents 24.6% of all starters.
The sires with the most starters in the file were: Art Major (70 starters), Grinfromeartoear (56), Village Jasper (35), Modern Art (29), Life Sign (24), Safely Kept (19), Elsu (18), Shadow Play (17), Rock N Roll Heaven (17), Courage Under Fire (17) and Sportswriter (16). The progeny of these sires total 318 altogether or 37.6% of all starters in the file.
Listed Winning Progeny out of Armbro Operative Broodmares
For this analysis, I selected only the starters that have won listed races. The table below shows 41 listed winners by 24 sires and average winnings. The table is sorted so that sires with the highest average winnings appear at the top and the number of starters appears in brackets if he has more than 1 starter.
These 41 listed progeny were out of 34 broodmares. One broodmare, Kellyarmbro, had 3 listed foals and another 5 dams had 2 listed progeny each.
Eight listed starters were out of listed winning race mares themselves, 15 were out of winners, 15 were out of unraced broodmares, and the remaining 3 were out of non-winning race mares. Of these 41 listed winners, 22 had a grand-dam that had thrown a listed winner, and the remaining 19 had thrown winners. No listed progeny had a grand-dam who had thrown only horses that were non-winning starters or no starters. Whilst there was diversity with respect to the racing ability of the broodmare herself, a better predictor of the possibility of producing a listed starter was whether the grand-dam had thrown any listed winners herself.
By 8 August 2018, Art Major had thrown 8 listed winners out of Armbro Operative’s daughters. Rocknroll Hanover, Shadow Play, Grinfromeartoear and Life Sign had sired 3 listed winning progeny each, and Blissfull Hall and Christian Cullen sired 2 listed winners each. Five of the 24 sires that have thrown listed winners are colonial bred: Christian Cullen, Pass the Mustard, Rich and Spoilt, The Falcon Strike and Advance Attack.
Break down by sire-line of listed winners by 8 August 2018 is as follows:
- 6 No Nukes sires have 10 listed progeny representing 24.4% of all listed starters with an average of $211,020 per starer.
- 3 Other line sires have 3 listed progeny(representing 7.3% with an average of $164,869 per starer.
- 3 Direct Scooter line stallions have 4 listed progeny representing 9.8% with an average of $128,794 per starer.
- 5 Cam Fella line sires have 6 listed progeny representing 14.6% with an average of $123,756 per starer.
- 7 Abercrombie sires have 18 listed progeny representing 43.9% with average winnings of $122,345 per starer.
The table above indicates that Armbro Operative broodmares who have thrown a listed winner may have a stronger affinity with No Nukes sire-lines with 3 of the top 6 being from that sire-line. Furthermore, the overall average dollars won on the racetrack for all listed starters descending from No Nukes sires is the highest. However, the number of listed progeny by Abercrombie line sires may indicate that this is also a cross that is more likely to result in a listed winner, as this represents 43.9% of all listed starters in the file.
Starters out of Elite Broodmares
This next analysis was intended to capture the elite broodmares in the data file, and the crosses that appear to be working with these mares. Elite broodmares were classified as such if they had any one of the following qualities:
- their grand-dam was a listed winning mare
- their grand-dam had thrown a listed winner, and/or
- their dam was a listed winner.
The selection criteria resulted in 348 starters by 96 different sires, and out of 113 broodmares. Sires with the highest number of starters out of elite broodmares were Art Major (46 starters), Grinfromeartoear (28), Modern Art (14), Rock N Roll Heaven (12), Life Sign (11), Village Jasper (10), Rocknroll Hanover (9), Christian Cullen (9) and Elsu (8).
Twenty-seven of these 348 starters were listed winners and by 15 different sires. Five of the listed winners were aged 3 years at the time of data extraction, and the remaining 22 were aged 4 years or older.
Due to the numerous starters out of elite mares, the analysis was separated into 2 categories by age. Starters aged 3 years and under at the time of data extraction were compared against each other. Starters aged 4 years and over were examined separately from horses aged 2 and 3 years.
Starters aged 2 and 3 years out of Elite Broodmares
Twenty four stallions sired 42 two or three year old starters out of these elite mares. Art Major had 11 starters, Mach Three and Roll with Joe had 3 starters each, and Rock N Roll Heaven, Shadow Play, Western Terror and Auckland Reactor had 2 starters each. All other sires in the file had one starter aged 2 or 3 at the time of data extraction on 8 August 2018.
All starters aged 2 or 3 years and average winnings by sire are displayed below. The data is sorted from highest to lowest average winnings. Sires that have a listed winning starter have a ‘*’ before their name. For example, Advance Attack has 1 starter that is a listed winner and had earned over $250,000 at the time of data extraction.
The top 5 sires by highest average winnings were from a variety of sire-lines. One commonality with 4 of the top 5 is that they possess Direct Scooter blood, and 3 of these 5 possess Matts Scooter either through the sire or the dam.
The display also shows that there was very little difference in average winnings of starters by Mach Three, Shadow Play, Art Major and Roll With Joe at the time data was extracted. The maximum difference in average earnings between these 4 sires was $3,356.
The sires that had produced listed winning progeny by 8 August 2018 were Advance Attack, Sportswriter, Art Major and Roll With Joe. A broad mix of sire-lines are represented, and also a mixture of dam sires, though 3 of these 4 sires possess Abercrombie prominently through his sire or dam-sire.
To provide greater insight into the bloodlines of 2 and 3 year olds out of Armbro Operative’s elite daughters, another examination of the top 10 starters by 8 August 2018 was undertaken. The top 10 are listed in the table below, and those with a ‘*’ are listed winners.
Five of the top 10 are Artsplace sires, 2 are Direct Scooter sires, another 2 are Western Hanover sires, and 1 is by a Cam Fella sire. Abercrombie blood is prominent through the sire or his dam in 7 of the top 10, and Matts Scooter through the sire or his dam-sire is prominent in 3 of the top 10 starters.
This analysis of 2 and 3 year old starters out of the elite Armbro Operative broodmares indicates an appreciation for various sire-lines. The blood of Abercrombie or Direct Scooter in the sire or his dam appears to have had the most success with this group of young starters.
Starters 4 years and over out of Elite Broodmares
87 stallions sired 306 starters aged 4 years or older out of the elite daughters of Armbro Operative. The oldest horses in the data file were born during the 2002-2003 breeding season, and the youngest horses were born in 2013 (aged 4 years). Significant diversity in the sire-lines represented is apparent with this subset of the data. This diversity may provide clearer signals regarding affinity with daughters of Armbro Operative.
Sires with the most starters in this cut of the data were Art Major (35 starters), Grinfromeartoear (28), Modern Art (13), Life Sign (11), Rock N Ro1l Heaven (10) and Village Jasper (10).
The display below lists only those sires with starters that have achieved an average above $20,000. Sires with a listed winners are highlighted by a ‘*’, and sires with group placed starters are highlighted by ‘#’ before his name. For example, the display shows that Red River Hanover had 1 starter aged 4 years or over, which had earned over $320,000 and was group placed.
Two of the top 10 sires in the display above are No Nukes sires, 2 are Abercrombie sires, another 2 are Falcon Seelster sires, 2 are Cam Fella sires and the remaining 2 are from other sire-lines. The dam-sires of each sire in the top 10 by average earnings are also represented by many different sire-lines. Significant diversity in the sires represented at the top level out of these elite mares is apparent in this display.
Three of the top 10 sires, based on average winnings, descend from Golden Miss (i.e. Red River Hanover, Panorama & Safely Kept). Northern Luck also possesses Golden Miss in his pedigree; he sits in 6th spot. The presence of this mare in the sire’s pedigree may be significant, however, the analysis above is not fine enough to demonstrate any particular affinity for the blood of any sire, mare or sire-line.
To provide more insight into the bloodlines that may have more affinity with Armbro Operative’s elite daughters, another examination of the starters earning over $100,000 aged 4 years and older was undertaken. These horses are listed in the table below. Horses with ‘*’ before their name were listed winners, and horses with ‘#’ were placed at group level.
The table below lists 35 horses. Fifteen of the 35 horses are listed winners, and 11 others have been placed at group level. The top 3 money winning horses in the table are all by No Nukes line stallions. The horse in third place (Atomic Red) is still winning races and significant prize-money, so may soon move into 2nd place. Five horses in the top 10 are by Abercrombie/Artsplace sires.
This more detailed analysis also reveals that the top 3 sires all descend from the famed, Golden Miss. Another 2 sires descending from this mare also feature prominently in this list of the top 35 starters: Panorama and Grinfromeartoear. Eleven horses in this list of 35 horses are sired by a stallion descending from Golden Miss, and 10 of these horses are either group placed or listed winning racehorses. This finding indicates that Golden Miss in the sire may increase his affinity with the elite daughters of Armbro Operative. Analysis of these horses and those that have won or placed at group level reveals as follows:
- No Nukes sires: 4 listed winners and 2 placed at group level
- Abercrombie/Artsplace sires: 7 listed winners and 8 placed at group level
- Cam Fella sires: 1 listed winner
- Falcon Seelster: 2 listed winners and 1 placed at group level
- In the Pocket/Direct Scooter: 0 listed winners and 0 at group level
- Sired by a horse descending from Golden Miss: 11 horses (6 listed, 4 group placed)
This analysis of 4 year old and older starters out of elite Armbro Operative broodmares indicates a possible affinity for No Nukes sires and Abercrombie/Artsplace sires. Assessment of Falcon Seelster bloodlines was difficult– these sires had few breeding opportunities with Armbro Operative broodmares, but this cross resulted in some very good horses out of the elite broodmares. An affinity for Direct Scooter was less apparent in this subset of data with older horses, though 2 of the top 3 possessed this blood through their sire’s dam. A possible affinity for some sires descending from or possessing the famed Golden Miss was observed with this dataset.
Summary of Elite Mares
The analysis of starters out of elite mares indicates that all sire-lines have tended to cross well. There was evidence that Artsplace/Abercrombie bloodlines through the sire works well for both age groups, and that No Nukes sires can work particularly well with aged performers. A possible affinity for Direct Scooter blood in the sire or his dam was apparent with young starters, whereas a possible liking for this bloodline was indicated through the sire’s dam-sire in the case of older horses. A significant number of the most successful aged performers were by sires possessing Golden Miss, indicating a possible nick or affinity with this mare for the elite broodmares.
Starters out of the non-Elite broodmares
To assess the possible contribution of the sire whilst controlling for mare quality, grand dams that had raced but were non winners, and which had not thrown any listed progeny were selected for further analysis. I also included unraced grand-dams that had only thrown unraced, unplaced or placed horses.
The selection criteria resulted in 102 starters by 59 different sires and out of 50 different mares. Two starters out of the non-elite mares were listed winners, 5 were placed at group level, and 5 horses had earned over $100,000 on the race track by 8 August 2018. Sires with the most progeny were Art Major (8 horses, 2 group placed), Sportswriter (6 horses, 1 group placed), and Grinfromeartoear, Village Jasper and Life Sign which had all sired 4 starters each.
The oldest starters in this subset were born in the 2003-2004 breeding season. The youngest starters in the file include 4 starters aged 2 and 11 aged 3 years. Art Major had 5 of his 8 starters aged 2 or 3 years, both of Somebeachsomewhere’s starters were aged 3 years, and 3 of Sportswriter’s 6 starters were aged 3 years and under. The younger horses aged 2 and 3 years are considered later in this section.
The display below shows average progeny earnings by sire for this selected group, but only includes sires with average winnings above $10,000.
Thirty-one from the original 59 sires had an average over $10,000, and a total of 66 starters. Sires with more than 1 progeny out of this group of mares have the number displayed inside brackets. If the sire has produced a listed winner a ‘*’ appears before his name, and a ‘#’ appears for those that have produced a horse that was placed at group level by 8 August 2018.
In the top 10, we see that 2 Cam Fella sires, 4 No Nukes sires, 2 Abercrombie sires and 1 Direct Scooter sire. No clear pattern is evident when the dam sire is examined for these top 10. Like the previous analysis of starters out of elite mares, the horse with the highest average is again by a No Nukes line stallion and, furthermore, these sires represent 4 of top 10.
Sires descending from Golden Miss again feature in the display. Righteous Hanover and Real Desire are in the top 10 based on average winnings, but neither has produced a horse performing competitively at group level. Safely Kept and Tell All are also from this family, though neither made the top 10. Though there are some handy horses, a particular affinity for the blood of Golden Miss was less clear with this subset of the data.
Sires with younger crops were reviewed. In the case of Art Major the data indicated that he could throw handy aged performers out of the non-elite broodmares, with the average for these 4 horses being over $72,000. This average would put him in 5th place ahead of Blissfull Hall, in the display above, if his young starters were excluded. One of his 5 young starters was placed in a group 3 race for 2 year olds recently, but the other 4 horses (all aged 3 years of age on 8 August) have not indicated the level of early speed that was apparent among the young horses out of the elite mares. Average winnings of Art Major’s starters aged under 4 years on 8 August 2018 was $2,924.
Sportswriter has 1 group placed 2 year old, Cee Cee Armbro, which is his most successful of the 6 starters out of the non-elite broodmares. All 3 of Sportswriter’s starters aged 2, at the time of data extraction, had won a race. This data indicates that he may tend to throw early speed youngsters out of the non-elite daughters of Armbro Operative, with the average winnings for these 3 horses being $21,997. There was little evidence in this dataset of aged performers out of the 3 starters aged 4 years or older. Average winnings of Sportswriter’s starters aged 4 years and older on 8 August 2018 was $8,821.
In an attempt to gain stronger signals from the data, I looked at a select list of the horses out of the non-elite broodmares that were placed at group level or had won a listed race, and I also looked at the top 10 money winning horses. No clear signal stood out in the results with respect to the sire!
Sires with Five or more starters: Average Dam and Progeny earnings
In this next analysis, I examined only those sires with 5 or more starters. Average earnings of the broodmares put to that sire were compared against average earnings of the resulting starters. This analysis is another potential indicator of ‘quality’ put to the respective sire, and whether, on average, the resulting starter appears to have been upgraded by that sire. I have assumed that, if the value for average progeny earnings is higher than the value for average dam earnings, than this could indicate an ‘upgrade’ by that sire. The data is presented with horses aged 2 and 3 year old excluded, because their age could significantly lower averages for respective sires.
A total of 555 starters by 48 sires were included in this analysis. Average winnings of the progeny and average winnings of the mares put to that sire are displayed below, and sorted from highest average progeny winnings to lowest. Sires with a listed winner have ‘*’ and sires with a group placed have ‘#’ before their name. The number of starters in the file aged 4 years and above is found inside brackets.
The display below shows, for example, that Panorama has 5 starters aged 4 years and older on 8 August 2018. Panorama has at least 1 horse that was placed at group level. The average earnings of Panorama’s starters was $105,282, but average winnings of the mares put to him was a mere $9537. This indicates that Panorama appears to have significantly upgraded resulting progeny out of Armbro Operative’s daughters.
Though not visible in the display below, 3 out of 5 starters by Panorama have earned over $100,000, which is quite remarkable. Two of these 5 horses had been placed in group races. Thirty-five of the 48 (72.9%) sires displayed appear to, on average, upgrade the resulting starters. This is an outstanding result, highlighting the value of Armbro Operative’s daughters as broodmares.
The display shows that the dams with the highest average earnings were put to the following 7 sires: Rock N Roll Heaven, Somebeachsomewhere, Mach Three. Sportswriter, Christian Cullen, Art Major and Rocknroll Hanover. At the time of compiling the data, Rocknroll Hanover and Art Major were the only 2 sires that had ‘improved’ the average winnings of the resulting starters from this group of comparatively elite broodmares.
The sires with average starter earnings over $30,000 above the average of the mares put to him include: Panorama, Shadow Play, Astreos, Red River Hanover, Our Sir Vancelot, and Northern Luck. Red River Hanover has one outstanding performer that has earned over $330,000, which has significantly skewed the average winnings. The other starters by him in the file have not won more than $35,000.
There is little in common between the sires that have averaged over $30,000, however, there is something in common for Panorama, Red River Hanover and Northern Luck. All 3 horses possess Golden Miss in their pedigrees, indicating a possible nick or affinity for this blood. A possible affinity for the blood of Golden Miss and/or Ensign Hanover was raised in previous analyses. Ensign Hanover is the sire of Golden Miss, and appears in Armbro Operative’s pedigree through his sire, Cam Fella.
There is further evidence of a possible liking for the blood of Golden Miss and/or Ensign Hanover. Safely Kept, Grinfromeartoear and Rocknroll Hanover possess this blood in their pedigree. The average winnings of their starters exceed the average winnings of the broodmares put to them, for example:
- Safely Kept (Dam average winnings $16,424; starting progeny average winnings, $41,948), and
- Rocknroll Hanover (Dam average $44,614, starter average $66,093), and
- Grinfromeartoear (Dam average $17,338, starter average $23,768)
Tell All possesses a duplication of Golden Miss in his pedigree. Though he does not have the minimum 5 progeny to be included in the display above, he does have 3 starters aged 4 years and older out of mares of varying quality. All starters are winners. One of these 3 starters, Animated, is out of an ordinary maternal family, but he has earned in excess of $100,000 to date. Animated is still performing well on the race track, earning over $34,000 during the 2017-18 racing season. The combined average of these 3 horses aged 4 years and older on 8 August 2018 was $15,000 higher (and climbing) than the average winnings of their dams, indicating that this cross may also increase the likelihood of an upgrade.
To examine the potential power of the nick with Golden Miss/Ensign Hanover, I performed another analysis that displayed the difference between the average winnings of starters put to the sire and the mares put to the sire. Only sires where the difference between these averages by the starters exceeds $20,000 (to 8 August 2018) are displayed below. For example, the average winnings of Panorama’s starters exceeds by more than $90,000 the winnings of the mares put to him.
The average winnings of starting progeny by 12 different sires exceed by more than $20,000 the average winnings of the broodmares put to him, which signals a possible affinity or upgrade by that sire. A number of sire-lines are represented in this list of 12 including 2 Abercrombie sire-lines, 4 No Nukes sire-lines, and 3 Cam Fella sires. Interestingly, 5 of these 12 sires possess Golden Miss in their pedigree, and another 2 sires possess Ensign Hanover.
Six sires in the display above had comparatively low numbers of elite mares (i.e. 33% or less) including: Shadow Play, Red River Hanover, Our Sir Vancelot, Northern Luck, Aces N Sevens, and Sutter Hanover. Three of these 6 sires possess Ensign Hanover, and 2 of these 3 also possess Golden Miss. The 2 sires possessing Golden Miss (i.e. Red River Hanover, Northern Luck) have either group placed or listed winning starters, whereas the remaining horses do not, except for Shadow Play.
Shadow Play, who possesses no Golden Miss in his pedigree, also appears to cross rather well, on average, with Armbro Operative broodmares. The majority of his starters are out of mares from ordinary families, but he has produced 2 listed winners aged 4 years or older from these ordinary mares. One of these 2 horses had earned over $485,000 by 8 August 2018, and the other has earned over $100,000. These results are quite extraordinary!
The remaining 6 sires (ie Panorama, Astreos, Blissfull Hall, Safely Kept, Ultimate Falcon and Rocknroll Hanover) were served a minimum of 33% elite mares and most have thrown either a group placed or listed winning horses. Three of these sires descend from Golden Miss, and another possesses Ensign Hanover.
A number of horses have raced competitively within the last 4 months, so the average winnings will be likely to increase for their sire. That is: Rocknroll Hanover has 6 horses, Shadow Play has 4 horses and Blissfull Hall has 3 horses still racing. Given the comparatively young age and performance of their crops, I anticipate that the difference between starters and dam average winnings will increase significantly for Rocknroll Hanover and Shadow Play. Consequently, the position of these horses in the display above may look rather different in another year or so.
Nine of Rocknroll Hanover’s 11 starters aged 4 years and older were out of elite mares. However, he has produced some very nice horses. To 8 August 2018 he has 3 listed winners., Two of these have won over $100,000, and a third hors has won over $300,000. These results are impressive. Based on the data in the file, Rocknroll Hanover appears to be another cross that works rather well, on average, with Armbro Operative broodmares.
As well as possible nick with the blood of Golden Miss/Ensign Hanover, this analysis has revealed that both Rocknroll Hanover and Shadow Play have crossed very well with daughters or Armbro Operative. Both of these stallions are from Western Hanover sire-lines and possess Direct Scooter blood prominently through their dam.
Conclusion:
This analysis has highlighted the value of Armbro Operative’s daughters, which have crossed very well with numerous sires and sire-lines to date. Seventy-three per cent of sires with 5 or more starters aged 4 years and older upgraded the resulting starters, which is an incredible achievement for a band of broodmares.
The data signalled that the blood of Golden Miss and/or Ensign Hanover may nick particularly well with Armbro Operative’s daughters, regardless of mare quality. Golden Miss was also appreciated by Cam Fella, who is the sire of Armbro Operative, with Camluck and grandson, DM Dilinger possessing this mare in their pedigrees.
Sires possessing Golden Miss or Ensign Hanover were found to rate highly in most analyses. However, younger starters aged 2 and 3 years out of the elite broodmares, did not reveal that same affinity, possibly because crop sizes were small or for other reasons.
As well as the blood of Golden Miss/Ensign Hanover the data signalled that a few sires seemed to cross particularly well with Armbro Operative. These sires were Shadow Play (3 listed out of 17 starters or 17.6%) and Rocknroll Hanover (3 listed out of 11 starters or 27.2%). Crops for both sires averaged over $20,000 more than the winnings of the mares put to them, and that figure continues to increase. Both of these sires share similarities in their pedigrees: they are Western Hanover sires, and possess Direct Scooter blood prominently through their dam.
By Danielle Helbers
Approved By Dean Baring www.harnessbred.com
Driving The Future Of Harness Racing
