By Danielle Helbers
Some time ago, I said I would perform an analysis of siring ability that enables our colonial sires to be included and compared. This article gives the findings for Albert Albert broodmares in Australia, and all their progeny that started on a race track by March 2017. This article focuses exclusively on results of the following:
- Qualities of listed winnings progeny,
- Siring results when the grand dam was listed AND she threw a listed winner herself,
- Siring results when listed winning grand dams, listed winning dams, and grand dams that threw listed winning foals are all excluded, and
- Average earnings of race starting progeny against average earnings of the broodmare pool to that sire. This only includes sires with 5 or more starting progeny.
Before proceeding, I wish to thank HRA, which provided data to me free of charge. HRA was great to deal with and did their best to meet my data requests.
Methodology
Manual entry of data was required before any analyses could commence. To compile the data I downloaded the broodmares sire report for all starters, then recorded manually which of Albert Albert’s daughters were listed winners, and did the same for his grandchildren and the grand dam of the starter. Other data I entered manually included whether Albert Albert’s daughter and her mother (the grand dam) were unraced, unplaced, placed, or a winner. I also recorded the dam’s earnings. Whether the maternal grand dam had thrown any listed winners, winners, etc was also recorded.
Free for all or metropolitan winners were not recorded in the data file. Determining race type, other than listed races, was error prone due to inconsistencies in the database. This was largely a historical artefact arising from differential recording practices between the states, which were problematic until recent times. Whilst I cannot guarantee my data file is free from errors, I have confidence that the analyses can show some ‘signals’.
The analyses will have limitations that should be considered when interpreting results. For example, a sire’s starters may be comparatively young and may have had less opportunity than others to make their mark. Another consideration is that this analysis is specific to Albert Albert’s daughters born in Australia. A sire may lack an affinity to this blood, but may still be an incredible sire, including over the ditch in New Zealand. That said, let’s have a look at the results.
Horses in the data file:
The file includes 443 starters out of 188 of Albert Albert’s daughters of varying quality, and by 127 different sires. Seventeen broodmares had five or more starting progeny in the file, and a grand total of 98 starters altogether, representing 22% of all starters.
The sires with the most starters in the file were: Four Starzzz Shark (25 starters), Armbro Operative (23), Bettors Delight (21), Art Major (20), Blissfull Hall (19), Modern Art (13), Jeremes Jet (10), Presidential Ball (10), Western Terror (9), Elsu (8) and Village Jasper (8). Their progeny total 37.5% of all starters in the file.
Listed Winning Progeny out of Albert Albert Broodmares
For this analysis, I selected only the starters that had won listed races. The table below shows 23 listed winners by 18 sires and average winnings. The top 6 average winnings are colour coded in the table.
These 23 listed progeny were out of 18 broodmares. Two broodmares had 3 listed foals each. Eleven broodmares had either a listed winning grand dam or a grand dam that had thrown a listed winner. The remaining 7 all had a grand dam that had thrown winners. No listed progeny had a grand dam who had not thrown any starters, and no grand dam threw only non-winning horses.
Blissfull Hall is the only sire to have 3 progeny that had won listed races. However, Four Starzzz Shark was the only sire to have 2 listed winners earning over $1 million. Our Sir Vancelot is the only colonial sire to have a listed winner.
The table below indicates that Albert Albert broodmares may have a particular affinity for Most Happy Fella (ie, No Nukes, Cam Fella, Tyler B), with 17 of the 23 listed winners from that sire line.
All starters from Listed winning grand dams that threw Listed Progeny
Next I selected all starters based on grand dam quality: the results are displayed below. Only starters with a listed winning grand dam that had also thrown a listed winner were selected. Numbers of starting progeny by the respective sire appears in brackets, eg Art Major had 2 foals using these criteria. Thirty-six starters were from this broodmare band – 5 of those are listed winners. Sires that have thrown a listed starter are denoted in the display below by a ‘*’ next to his name.
The 3 top sires by average earnings in this cohort were sons of Cams Card Shark, and 6 of the top 7 stallions were Cam Fella sire lines. When the display above is compared with the previous table, a number of sires appear that were not in the previous list, and the average dollars earned also differs considerably. No colonial sires feature in this group. This is compelling evidence that the colonial sires missed out on the better broodmares, making it considerably harder to prove themselves.
Starters with a race starting, non-winning grand dam, that had not thrown any listed winners
To assess the possible contribution of the sire whilst controlling for mare quality, I selected only grand dams that had raced but were non winners, and which had not thrown listed progeny. The display shows average progeny earnings by sire for this selected group.
Using the criteria selected, I identified 41 starters by 29 sires and out of 19 broodmares. Only 2 progeny were listed winners – one by Blissfull Hall and the other by Our Sir Vancelot.
In this cohort, we find 4 colonial sires. Furthermore, the colonial sires have the highest average earnings and make up 3 of the top 7 sires. Four Starzzz Shark has not had success with these mares. The sires throwing the 8 highest earners were:
- Our Sir Vancelot – $175,091 (listed winner, 1:51.8)
- Western Terror – $132,927 (1:56.6)
- It is I – $125,217 (1:55.5 out of Mama Tembu)
- Davids Pass –$104,161 (1:58.3 out of Mama Tembu)
- Dream Away – $103,195 (1:53.4 out of No Apology)
- Blissfull Hall – $82,664 (listed winner, 1:57.4)
- Pacific Fella – $75,806 (2:00.4, out of No Apology)
- Tintin in America – $64,121 (1:54.6 out of Mama Tembu)
The dams of these top 8 were either race winners or unraced. One unraced dam, Mama Tembu, had thrown 3 of the above horses, none of which are listed winners, but free for all or cups winners. Mama Tembu was from a maternal family that was rather unremarkable, with not one horse winning more than $50,000 in the last several generations. However, she is a terrific broodmare, producing numerous winners from different stallions. Mama Tembu’s best, to date, is by It is I. Her 2 fastest are both by the colonial sires, It is I and Tintin in America. Mama Tembu’s unremarkable family history raises some possible insights into sire contribution.
Our Sir Vancelot’s son, Star Chamber, is from a maternal family even less remarkable than Mama Tembu’s. The dam, Courtney Breeze, was only unplaced in 5 of her 15 starts. She won her 3 races as a 3 year old, and raced in country Victoria and NSW. There’s nothing in her racing history to suggest talent. She has not produced any other race starters to date, having had 2 other foals of racing age by respected American sires. She has thrown a rather outstanding performer, and the key factor, in this instance, appears to be the mating to New Zealand bred, Our Sir Vancelot.
It is fair to say that, even in this category, though I tried to control for mare quality, many that were mated with commercial sires, ie Mach Three and Bettors Delight, were from families with listed winners. They were found in the great grand dam’s progeny or her other daughters. A case example is the dam, No Apology, whose dam is from the same maternal family as Lennytheshark and Frith.
Despite some possible ‘unfair advantages’, the colonial sires and ‘less’ commercial sires have often outdone the successful commercial sires. When put to mares where there were no listed horses in the last 2 generations, and where the grand dam appears to have had limited ability on the track herself, our colonial sires appear to have ‘upgraded’ the resulting progeny.
This analysis has also revealed that the blood of Most Happy Fella may not necessarily be a key when serving to these mares, with 3 of the 8 stallions being from other sire lines.
Sires with 5 or more starters: Average Dam earnings and Average Progeny earnings
In this next analysis, I examined only those sires with 5 or more starters, and compared average earnings of the dam with average earnings of her resulting foals. This analysis is another potential indicator of average mare ‘quality’ put to the respective sire, and whether the resulting foal appears to have been upgraded. I have assumed that, if the value for average foal earnings is higher than the value for average dam earnings, than this indicates an ‘upgrade’ by that sire. Results by sire are displayed below.
The dam groups with the highest average earnings were put to the following 6 sires: Rocknroll Hanover, Mach Three, Art Major, Sportswriter, Live or Die and Jeremes Jet. None of these sires, at the time of compiling the data, appear to have ‘improved’ the average winnings of the resulting foals.
The sires that have ‘added’ value to the progeny out of Albert Albert’s daughters are numerous in the list above. They are identified when the blue coloured bar is higher than the black coloured bar alongside it. The top 6 sires by average foal earnings with 5 or more starters are: Four Starzzz Shark, Union Guy, Western Terror, Our Sir Vancelot, Blissfull Hall and Bettors Delight. Both of the colonial sires (Our Sir Vancelot, Elsu) were served to mares winning below $10,000 on average, but they have upgraded the resulting progeny and their earnings.
Red River Hanover appears to show signals of being a better cross, and the more successful sire, when mated with Albert Albert broodmares than his superstar brother, Rocknroll Hanover. However, this may be due to progeny that are still making headway on the tracks – I haven’t checked this possibility. Nor have I assessed the impact of this limitation with any of the analyses.
Conclusion:
This article has compared the performance of sires with progeny out of Albert Albert broodmares. I’ve attempted to determine sire performance whilst controlling for quality of broodmares and her maternal family. I assumed that progeny were ‘upgraded’ by a sire using average mare earnings and average starting progeny earnings as key measures and indicators. The analysis has signalled that our colonial sires have been able to produce some terrific performers that are competitive at the top echelons of the sport, but they have had to do so with limited opportunities and broodmares of lesser quality. Listed winners out of Albert Albert’s daughters were most likely to be sired by a horse descending from Most Happy Fella sire lines, but that relationship is less apparent in the case of broodmares of ordinary or low quality.
American sire, Blissfull Hall, demonstrated the ability to sire listed winners from broodmares of varying quality, and he also tended to upgrade his progeny. New Zealand bred, Our Sir Vancelot, did something that few stallions can achieve, I expect. That is, he produced a listed winner from a mare with a particularly unremarkable maternal family. Both sires seem to have demonstrated they may add that extra ‘something’ when put to daughters of Albert Albert.
Approved By Dean Baring www.harnessbred.com
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